Assignment List: Participant Observation Practice

Assignment #	Session #	Progression Note #	Assignment Name	Discipline / Scope
1	1	1	Observing Public & Private Spending Over Time	ST
2	1	1	Identifying National Persistent Issues	ST
3	1	2	What type of complexity is each approach primarily designed to address?	ST
4	2	2	Mapping Persistent Issues Using the Four Quadrant Framework	ST
5	2	3	Identification of news reports illustrating Balancing Causal Loop Structure & Reinforcing Causal Loop Structure
6	2	3	Identification of organisational statements illustrating Balancing Causal Loop Structure & Reinforcing Causal Loop Structure	ST
7	3	4	Identify words, conditions and situations commonly associated with: A. Reinforcing Loops (e.g. increasing unemployment, dependency) B. Balancing Loops (e.g. treatment, arrest) Build a dictionary of common words	ST
8	3	4	Growth Ministries vs Stabilising Ministries	ST
9	3	4	Study Laws 1–6 of Dynamic Complexity.	ST
10	3	4	Understanding how countries measure unemployment	ST
11	3	4	Following Human Benefit	ST
12	3	4	The Rise of the Creative Economy	ST
13	3	4	Reading the Botswana Persistent Unemployment Study through the Laws of Dynamic Complexity	ST

ASSIGNMENT #1

OBSERVING PUBLIC & PRIVATE SPENDING PATTERNS OVER TIME

Participants are requested to begin observing and informally ranking long-term patterns of:

▪️ public spending
▪️ private spending
▪️ and sectoral development priorities

across Botswana’s historical development trajectory from approximately the 1900s to the present where possible.

The intention is not to produce perfect academic research at this stage, but to begin strengthening:
▪️ systems observation
▪️ historical pattern recognition
▪️ structural comparison
▪️ and behavioural analysis over time.

Participants are encouraged to observe patterns across areas such as:

▪️ education
▪️ health
▪️ public administration
▪️ social justice programmes
▪️ judiciary systems
▪️ agriculture
▪️ manufacturing
▪️ infrastructure
▪️ mining
▪️ social support systems
▪️ and productive sector development.

Participants may begin asking questions such as:

• Which sectors appear to have received the greatest long-term attention and investment?
• Which sectors appear persistently underdeveloped despite repeated discussion?
• What patterns become visible between spending behaviour and national outcomes?
• Where does productive capacity appear to strengthen or weaken over time?
• What relationships may exist between spending patterns, employment, GDP growth, and social behaviour?

The assignment is intended to help participants begin shifting from:
▪️ isolated issue analysis

toward:
▪️ structural systems observation across time.

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ASSIGNMENT #2

IDENTIFYING PERSISTENT NATIONAL ISSUES

Participants are requested to begin compiling a working list of:
▪️ persistent national issues

which continue resurfacing repeatedly across Botswana’s development environment over long periods of time.

The emphasis is not merely on current problems, but on:
▪️ issues that appear resistant to interventions
▪️ issues repeatedly discussed across administrations
▪️ or conditions which continue recurring despite programmes, reforms, funding, or policy adjustments.

Examples may include:
▪️ unemployment
▪️ youth unemployment
▪️ poverty
▪️ corruption
▪️ housing challenges
▪️ agricultural underperformance
▪️ manufacturing weakness
▪️ inequality
▪️ education-employment mismatch
▪️ institutional inefficiencies
▪️ public service frustrations
▪️ crime
▪️ water challenges
▪️ or other recurring structural concerns.

Participants are encouraged to begin observing:

▪️ How long has the issue existed?
▪️ What kinds of interventions are usually introduced?
▪️ What patterns repeat?
▪️ What emotional reactions usually surround the issue publicly?
▪️ Does the issue reduce temporarily and later return?
▪️ What may be structurally reinforcing its persistence?

The assignment is intended to help participants begin distinguishing between:

▪️ events
and:
▪️ systems patterns,

as well as strengthening their sensitivity toward:
▪️ persistence
▪️ behavioural recurrence
▪️ and structural causation over time.

Participants have now begun:
▪️ systems observation
▪️ pattern recognition
▪️ and persistence identification work.

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ASSIGNMENT #3

Detailed Complexity vs Dynamic Complexity

One of the challenges facing modern organisations is that many management tools are highly effective at solving detailed complexity but are less effective at addressing dynamic complexity.

For this exercise, participants are requested to examine several commonly used management approaches and consider:

• What type of complexity is each approach primarily designed to address?
• Which of the Five Disciplines does it most closely resemble?
• What strengths does it bring?
• What limitations might emerge if it is used alone?

Participants may consider examples such as:

• Agile
• Six Sigma
• Lean Management
• After Action Reviews (AARs)
• Project Management
• Process Management
• Strategic Planning
• Risk Management
• Quality Management
• Performance Management

The purpose is not to critique these approaches.

The purpose is to strengthen the ability to distinguish:

Detailed Complexity

• many variables
• technical coordination
• process improvement
• efficiency

from

Dynamic Complexity

• delayed consequences
• unintended outcomes
• feedback effects
• persistent issues over time

Participants should also explore whether each approach appears most closely aligned with and provide reasons for their choice(s):

• Personal Mastery
• Mental Models
• Shared Vision
• Team Learning
• Systems Thinking

or some combination of these disciplines.

Submission Format

Approach	Detailed Complexity	Dynamic Complexity	Related Discipline(s)	Notes

Expected Length

2–3 pages

ASSIGNMENT #4

Mapping Persistent Issues Using the Four Quadrant Framework

Using the persistent issues identified in Assignment #2, participants are requested to place each issue within the Four Quadrants Framework.

The purpose is to begin observing where persistent issues are concentrating and how different parts of the national system interact.

Participants are not yet being asked to explain the issue or solve it.

The purpose is to strengthen classification and observation discipline.

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The Four Quadrants

H-H — Human Quadrant

The Human Quadrant focuses on:

• people
• families
• communities
• culture
• values
• behaviour
• beliefs
• aspirations
• social wellbeing

Examples:

• unemployment
• substance abuse

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H-N — Natural Quadrant

The Natural Quadrant focuses on:

• land
• water
• biodiversity
• climate
• ecosystems
• natural resources
• environmental sustainability

Example:

• drought

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H-E — Economic Quadrant

The Economic Quadrant focuses on:

• production
• employment
• industry
• agriculture
• manufacturing
• trade
• infrastructure
• investment
• wealth creation

Example:

• investment flows

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H-G — Governance Quadrant

The Governance Quadrant focuses on:

• leadership
• institutions
• policy
• legislation
• public administration
• budgeting
• accountability
• national coordination

Example:

• policy implementation

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Assignment Table

Persistent Issue	H-H	H-N	H-E	H-G

Participants may place an issue in more than one quadrant where appropriate.

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Reflection Questions

After completing the table, reflect briefly on:

1. Which Quadrant appears to contain the greatest number of persistent issues?
2. Which Quadrant appears least represented?
3. Which issues seem to span all four quadrants?
4. Which Quadrant appears to receive the greatest policy attention?
5. Which Quadrant appears to receive the least attention despite its influence on the others?

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Purpose

This exercise prepares participants for later work involving:

• Behaviour Over Time (BOT) analysis
• Dynamic Complexity
• System Archetypes
• National Systems Mapping
• Onion Model analysis

The purpose is not yet explanation.

The purpose is learning to locate issues before attempting to interpret them.

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Assignment #5

Identification of:

• Three news reports illustrating Balancing Causal Loop Structure.
• Three news reports illustrating Reinforcing Causal Loop Structure.

For each example, explain:

• Why it appears to represent the loop.
• Which variables are interacting.
• What behaviour might emerge over time.

Assignment #6

Identification of:

• Three organisational mission or vision statements illustrating Balancing Causal Loop Structure.
• Three organisational mission or vision statements illustrating Reinforcing Causal Loop Structure.

For each example, explain:

• Why the statement appears to represent the loop.
• Which variables are interacting.
• What behaviour might emerge over time.

Participants who have not yet completed these assignments are encouraged to use the coming days to catch up before Session 3.

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Assignment #7

Identify words, conditions and situations commonly associated with:

A. Reinforcing Loops (e.g. increasing unemployment, dependency)

B. Balancing Loops (e.g. treatment, arrest)

Prepare separate lists of ten words each and explain why each belongs within the selected loop structure.

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Assignment #8

Growth Ministries vs Stabilising Ministries

The purpose of this assignment is to help participants understand that governments generally perform two broad functions:

Growth Ministries

These ministries are primarily concerned with:

▪ Expanding productive capacity
▪ Increasing national output
▪ Generating employment
▪ Building infrastructure
▪ Developing human capability
▪ Increasing exports
▪ Improving competitiveness
▪ Creating future prosperity

These ministries largely influence the productive side of the economy.

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Stabilising Ministries

These ministries are primarily concerned with:

▪ Maintaining social order
▪ Protecting public health
▪ Administering justice
▪ Preserving security
▪ Managing public administration
▪ Correcting deviations from desired standards
▪ Responding to societal stresses and failures

These ministries largely respond to conditions already occurring within society.

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Assignment Instructions

Part A

Divide Botswana’s ministries into:

Group 1: Growth Ministries

Ministries whose primary focus is:

▪ Production
▪ Capability building
▪ Economic expansion
▪ Infrastructure development
▪ Wealth creation

Group 2: Stabilising Ministries

Ministries whose primary focus is:

▪ Regulation
▪ Administration
▪ Security
▪ Justice
▪ Social protection
▪ Health correction
▪ Governance maintenance

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Part B

For each ministry:

1. Identify its primary purpose.
2. Identify the principal condition it seeks to influence.
3. List two or three major interventions undertaken by the ministry.
4. Determine whether those interventions are primarily:

▪ Capacity-building actions
▪ Corrective actions
▪ Regulatory actions
▪ Protective actions

5. Discuss whether the ministry’s activities:

▪ Generate productive capacity,
or

▪ Stabilise the consequences of conditions generated elsewhere.

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Part C

Using the unemployment study and Session 3A discussions:

Discuss the following question:

If productive capacity fails to grow sufficiently, which stabilising ministries are likely to experience increasing pressure?

Examples may include:

▪ Health
▪ Local Government
▪ Police
▪ Justice
▪ Social Protection
▪ Youth Services

Explain the reinforcing and balancing dynamics involved.

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Expected Insight

Participants should begin to recognise that:

• Growth ministries help create the conditions for future prosperity.
• Stabilising ministries help society cope with conditions already present.
• A nation can become increasingly dominated by stabilising activity when productive capacity does not keep pace with population growth and societal needs.
• Many persistent national issues become visible in stabilising ministries even though their origins may lie within the productive system.

The next step would be for us to produce a model answer using Botswana’s current 18 ministries and classify each one into Growth, Stabilising, or Mixed (Growth + Stabilising). That would make an excellent Session 3B discussion exercise because several ministries sit on the boundary between the two categories.

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Assignment #9

Study Laws 1–6 of Dynamic Complexity.

For each law:

▪ Provide the meaning in your own words.
▪ Cite one or two examples.

Examples may be drawn from:

▪ Organisations
▪ Families
▪ Communities
▪ Schools
▪ Businesses
▪ Government institutions

The objective is to recognise the law operating within real-world situations.

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OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT #10

UNDERSTANDING HOW COUNTRIES MEASURE UNEMPLOYMENT

Purpose

Many national policies, programmes and public discussions are based upon unemployment statistics. Before attempting to solve unemployment, it is important to understand how unemployment itself is defined and measured.

This assignment invites participants to investigate how different countries determine their unemployment figures and to reflect on the strengths and limitations of these approaches.

Assignment Requirements

Research and compare unemployment measurement practices used by different countries and international organisations.

Consider the following questions:

1. How is an “unemployed person” defined?
2. What conditions must a person meet to be counted as unemployed?
3. How are people treated who:
   ▪ Have stopped looking for work?
   ▪ Work only a few hours per week?
   ▪ Participate in informal economic activities?
   ▪ Engage in subsistence agriculture?
   ▪ Are students?
   ▪ Are undertaking training programmes?
4. What role do labour force surveys play?
5. What standards are recommended by the International Labour Organization (ILO)?
6. How do different countries address:
   ▪ Youth unemployment?
   ▪ Long-term unemployment?
   ▪ Underemployment?
   ▪ Informal employment?
7. What limitations exist in current unemployment measures?

Reflection Questions

1. Does measuring unemployment provide a complete picture of productive participation within a society?
2. What important forms of work may be excluded from unemployment statistics?
3. How might unemployment figures differ between developed and developing economies?
4. What implications do measurement choices have for national policy decisions?

Deliverable

Prepare a brief summary (1–3 pages) outlining:

▪ Key findings.
▪ Similarities and differences between countries.
▪ Limitations of existing measurement approaches.
▪ Questions arising from your research.

Purpose for Systems Thinking

The objective is not simply to learn how unemployment is measured, but to recognise how definitions, assumptions and measurement choices influence how societies understand and respond to persistent issues.

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Assignment 11

Following Human Benefit

Central Research Question

One of the assumptions of economics is that production exists to satisfy human needs.

This assignment asks you to investigate that proposition from a different perspective.

Instead of asking who buys, or who pays, continue tracing every expenditure until you reach the final human being whose needs are ultimately being met.

Do not stop at:

• governments,
• businesses,
• NGOs,
• banks,
• schools,
• hospitals,
• industries,
• households.

These are intermediaries.

Continue tracing the flow until you reach the final human beneficiary.

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The Research Question

If every economic activity is followed to its ultimate destination, who ultimately benefits from global economic activity?

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Your Investigation

Develop a methodology that enables you to investigate this question.

Beginning with any expenditure, continue asking:

Who ultimately benefits?

When that answer is obtained, ask again.

Who ultimately benefits from that?

Continue until the chain can no longer be extended.

Only then have you reached the end of the investigation.

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Construct a Proxy Model

Using your methodology, estimate the proportion of global economic activity that ultimately benefits:

Ultimate Beneficiary	Estimated Share (%)	Evidence
Men
Women
Children
Shared Benefit

These are working estimates intended to stimulate investigation rather than represent established facts.

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Historical Behaviour

Now extend your investigation through history.

Estimate how the distribution of ultimate human benefit has changed over time.

Use approximately 50-year intervals beginning in 1500.

Year	Men (%)	Women (%)	Children (%)	Shared (%)
1500
1550
1600
…
Present

Support your estimates with evidence wherever possible.

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The Deeper Questions

Having completed your investigation, reflect on the following:

• What structural changes appear to have shifted the destination of economic activity?
• Which industries expanded because of those shifts?
• Which industries declined?
• What assumptions did you make?
• Which assumptions require further testing?

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Stretch Question

Suppose your estimates are broadly correct.

What implications might they have for:

• economic development,
• industrialisation,
• household income,
• environmental sustainability,
• future patterns of global demand?

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Submission

Prepare:

1. Your tracing methodology.
2. A Behaviour Over Time table (1500–Present).
3. Supporting evidence.
4. A two-page discussion explaining your reasoning.
5. Questions that emerged during your investigation.

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Instructor’s Note

There are no predetermined answers to this assignment.

The purpose is not to defend a particular conclusion, but to learn how to follow the flow of economic activity beyond its immediate transactions to its ultimate human destination. Only then can we begin to ask how the changing needs of people have shaped economies over time.

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Assignment #12

The Rise of the Creative Economy

Central Question

As societies become wealthier, what proportion of their economic output is increasingly devoted to creativity, culture, sport and recreation, and what does this reveal about the long-term evolution of human needs?

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Research Question

Using data from 1950 to the present, determine how global spending on:

• Arts
• Cultural Industries
• Sport
• Recreation & Leisure

has changed over time.

Express your findings as:

• Absolute expenditure.
• Percentage of GDP.
• Percentage of total household expenditure (where available).

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The Investigation

Having completed the data collection, answer the following questions.

1. Behaviour Over Time

What long-term patterns do you observe?

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2. Structural Change

Why did these patterns change?

Identify the major structural forces responsible.

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3. Development

Do countries appear to spend proportionally more on creativity, culture, sport and recreation as incomes rise?

Support your conclusion.

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4. The Systems Question

At what stage of development does a society begin shifting a significant proportion of its resources from meeting basic needs to investing in creativity, identity, leisure and human fulfilment?

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5. Looking Ahead

Assuming the current trajectory continues,

what might the composition of global spending look like in 2050?

Prepare a Behaviour Over Time projection and explain your assumptions.

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Stretch Question

This is the one I think STRLDi participants will wrestle with.

If the purpose of an economy is ultimately to improve human wellbeing, should societies expect an increasing share of GDP to be devoted to creativity, culture, sport and recreation as they become more prosperous?

Or is there a natural limit?

Explain your reasoning.

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Assignment #13

Reading the Botswana Persistent Unemployment Study through the Laws of Dynamic Complexity

As you work through the study, identify where each of the Eleven Laws of Dynamic Complexity becomes visible.

For each law:

1. Locate where it appears in the study.
2. Explain why you believe that law is present.
3. Describe how recognising the law changes your understanding of Botswana’s unemployment challenge.

The objective is not simply to identify quotations, but to learn to recognise dynamic complexity as it unfolds.

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