Comprehensive National Horticulture Production Strategy: From Farm to Fork to Export

Building Resilient Horticulture Sector: Strategies for Success

Introduction
The horticulture sector plays a foundational role in shaping national food security. It also regenerates ecosystems, reverses weather extremes, and builds an inclusive, high-value agricultural economy that contributes to national wealth creation.

Global Comparison – Agriculture as % of GDP Botswana vs Global

Bangladesh’s agriculture sector contributes ~11.2% of GDP (as of 2023), which is significantly higher than the global average and places it among countries where agriculture remains structurally important to the economy.

Country/Region	Agri. % of GDP	Notes
Bangladesh	~11.2%	Strong rural base; diversified smallholder farming; triple cropping common
World average	~3.5%	Most countries have transitioned to industrial and service-led economies
India	~16.5%	Still agrarian; large informal sector; productivity challenges
Vietnam	~12%	Agro-export power; high productivity; strategic policy support
Botswana	~2%	Semi-arid; dominated by livestock; crop production low
USA	~1.0%	High output, low share due to services/industry-led economy
EU (average)	~1.5%	Advanced mechanization; subsidy-supported (CAP)
Sub-Saharan Africa (avg)	~15–25%	High in many countries, but often reflects low industrialization

Key Observations

Bangladesh’s agriculture contribution is 3–4 times the world average, reflecting:
- A largely rural and labor-intensive economy
- High population density relying on domestic food systems
- A sector that has modernized enough to increase value but not enough to be overtaken by industry or services
It is below many low-income Sub-Saharan African nations, but well above middle-income and high-income countries that have undergone full structural transformation.

Conclusion

Bangladesh sits in the global mid-zone—not as agriculturally dominant as frontier economies in Africa, but far more dependent on agriculture than industrialized countries. Its performance is notable for maintaining relatively high GDP contribution while improving food self-sufficiency and integrating smallholders into markets.

Here is a visual comparison of agriculture’s contribution to GDP across selected countries in 2023:

Bangladesh (11.2%) stands well above the world average (3.5%), and far ahead of high-income regions like the USA (1.0%) and the EU (1.5%).
It is comparable to Vietnam (12%) and lower than India (16.5%), while much lower than agriculturally dependent countries like Nigeria (23.1%) and Ethiopia (31.5%).
Botswana (2.0%) reflects a structurally different economy, focused on mining and services with very limited agricultural output.

Building an agriculture sector that is structurally important to the economy.

Yet, for the industry to realize its full potential, systemic alignment is needed. This encompasses how demand is tracked. It also involves how farmers access inputs, markets, and fair pricing.

The demand for nutrients required by horticultural crops is significantly higher than other forms of agricultural outputs. Despite the sandy and degraded soil conditions often encountered on our lands, current knowledge and technology can help. We can regenerate these environments. We can restore the conditions that horticultural plants need to thrive.

These capabilities—our knowledge and technology—must be placed at the forefront, rather than subordinated to the immediate demand for financial returns. High returns naturally follow when there is high-level, consistent attention to the application of regenerative inputs.

This guide outlines a twelve-part national framework that enables stakeholders to build a thriving horticulture sector. It begins by placing market demand at the center of production planning. It continues with strategic land use and crop choices that restore climatic balance. It then addresses the restoration of soils and ecosystems, the provision of essential inputs and infrastructure, and farmer extension systems. The guide further includes the establishment of handling and processing centres, fair market regulation, and transparent pricing oversight.

Lastly, it introduces the tools and systems needed for financial risk management and continuous performance evaluation. Together, these twelve coordinated levers offer a clear national roadmap for scaling up horticulture production profitably, regeneratively, and systemically.

1. STEM DEVELOPMENT FOR AGRICULTURE COMPETENCE

Strengthening STEM Foundations to Advance Agricultural Innovation
To drive meaningful transformation in the agriculture sector, it is critical to promote strong foundations in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) education across all levels — beginning in early schooling. This does not mean more agriculture classes, but rather a deep, consistent emphasis on core scientific subjects such as chemistry, biology, physics, and mathematics as essential components of child development.
By cultivating these disciplines early, we prepare future generations with the analytical and problem-solving capabilities required to support modern agriculture — from precision farming and soil chemistry to automation, data science, and agri-engineering. In addition to theoretical learning, equal attention must be given to developing practical, hands-on skills in these areas to foster innovation and entrepreneurship in agriculture-related industries.
This foundation is key to building a workforce capable of engaging with the advanced technologies outlined in our strategy — including AI-driven market intelligence, robotics, and smart input systems — and ensures that Botswana can lead from the front in global agri-tech competitiveness.
This point does not fall neatly within the purview of this Ministry. However, the success of the horticulture production sector depends on the STEM capabilities of its population. The current population has below 10% of tertiary graduates in STEM fields. This must shift toward levels more consistent with leading agricultural and industrialized nations. STEM graduates in these nations typically make up between 25% and 35% of the tertiary-educated population (e.g., Netherlands: ~30%, South Korea: ~35%, United States: ~27%). (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) theory and practical skills at all education levels, starting from grade school.
Build a pipeline. Find and equip the country’s brightest STEM-oriented minds. These minds work on the farms to design and produce within world-class systems for agricultural production.
Empower STEM-driven innovation to drive efficiency across all nodes of the value chain. This significantly reduces costs. It also raises production standards to meet or exceed international benchmarks.

2. DEMAND FORECASTING & MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Create a rolling six-month forecast of crop demand by locality and market segment. Consider local consumption, processors, and export by country. This is a cross-sectoral collaboration effort that includes MITI (Trade and Industry) and MIR (International Relations).
Set up a real-time Horticulture Information Management System (HIMS). This will collect and spread data on anticipated shortfalls. It will also include information on weather conditions and price movements.
Let demand data, not land, skills & resource availability, drive production. Align production plans to demand gaps six months ahead of expected delivery periods.
Track and publish retail pricing data to prevent misinformation that falsely attributes price increases solely to farmers.

3. CROP CHOICE STRATEGY FOR CLIMATE STABILIZATION

Strongly discourage tipping the balance toward drought-resistant crops. These crops reinforce arid conditions, keeping land dry, temperatures high, and rainfall minimal.
Instead, favour non-drought-resistant horticultural crops, which play a corrective role in reversing weather variability.
Keep a balanced cropping ratio of 60% non-drought-resistant to 40% drought-resistant crops. Farmers should keep a balance and not favour drought-resistant crops on their lands. These crops favor and exacerbate drought conditions. They also contribute to desertification. The failure of non-drought-resistant crops under extreme weather conditions is a signal. It indicates their potential leverage to reverse the climate extremes we are experiencing.
Horticulture thrives in moderate temperatures between 24–28°C. This climate range must be actively supported by land-use practices that regenerate moisture and temperature balance.

4. AGROECOLOGICAL LAND USE PLANNING & ZONING

Designate horticulture-appropriate zones for each crop based on soil type, topography, and historical rainfall.
Integrate zoning guides into national and district land-use frameworks to guide investments and permits.
Prevent monoculture expansion that leads to ecosystem fatigue, biodiversity loss, and crop failures.

5. ECOSYSTEM RESTORATION & SOIL REGENERATION

Build a national composting industry to supply plant-based compost blends with a 30% animal manure base and vermicompost enhancement.
Support farms with beneficial insect starter packs to restore natural pest-predator balances.
Promote shade-netting, windbreaks, and water-efficient technologies to stabilize field conditions within the optimal horticulture temperature range.

6. ENTRY & INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPORT

Certify and regulate suppliers of seeds, seedlings, compost, and beneficial insects.
Guarantee availability of shade nets, irrigation systems, and basic renewable energy to support stable microclimates.
Build farmers’ ability to calculate the cost of production per plant, per tonne, and per hectare, empowering smart decision-making.

7. PRODUCTION PLANNING & EXTENSION SERVICES

Align farm production calendars with market timing and climate forecasts.
Offer practical and on-site training through extension officers, lead farmer programs, and demo plots.
Deliver SMS and mobile-based advisory services to support continuous farmer learning and responsiveness.

8. POST-HARVESTING HANDLING & AGRO-PROCESSING

Handling and Distribution Centers must be established at all major horticulture production zones. The rule is that no farm should be more than 50 km away from a distribution center.
These centers should offer grading, sorting, cold storage, and basic processing to reduce post-harvest losses and boost farmer earnings.
Invest in value-added technologies (e.g., drying, juicing, pulping) to enhance income and export readiness.

9. MARKET ACCESS, RETAIL REGULATION & FAIR COMPETITION

Enforce retail price control mechanisms. Investigate and expose false narratives that claim price hikes are due to farmer costs.
Demand data must be used to prove the accuracy of price fluctuations and enforce transparency.
Tackle and penalize unfair procurement practices by major grocery retailers:
- Retailers running private farms or contracting exclusive suppliers violate fair competition laws. They do this by restricting access to goods for public producers.
- Conduct regular inspections and compliance audits to guarantee smallholder farmers are not systemically excluded from national supply chains.

10. FINANCIAL TOOLS & RISK MANAGEMENT

Develop farmer access to production cost calculators, insurance products, and risk profiling.
Promote resilience financing for infrastructure investment, ecological upgrades, and production scale-up.
Design policies to support fair access to funding without dependency on donor or state subsidies.
Promote insurance products to protect horticulture farmers from climate and pest-related losses.
Reference government-led initiatives. Align with initiatives like those in Botswana, the Horticulture Impact Accelerator Subsidy (IAS), and ISPAAD. Use these as mitigation tools for high capital costs.

11. MONITORING, EVALUATION & CONTINUOUS LEARNING

Create a National Horticulture Dashboard to track:
- Soil regeneration indicators
- Climate stabilization metrics
- Market access equity
- Producer profitability and delivery rates
Evaluate system performance annually to inform future plans, shift targets, and find bottlenecks.
Create a national learning cycle to institutionalize adaptive improvement across all sectors of the value chain.

12. STRATEGIC CROP & EXPORT READINESS ALIGNMENT

Focus on fruit tree crop development with climate-resilient and high-value potential, including avocado, citrus, fig, and guava.
Strengthen national phytosanitary controls to guarantee that pest and disease management aligns with international trade protocols (e.g., IPPC) for export readiness.